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The Future of Semiconductors

The Semiconductor Industry’s
Future and Policy Challenges

The third wave of semiconductor growth has already begun. With the emergence of large language models (LLMs) and the rapid growth of the generative AI industry, there is an increasing demand for AI accelerators and data centers. As a result, the global semiconductor market is once again entering a golden era. To ensure the global competitiveness of Korea’s semiconductor industry, government support is absolutely essential at this time.

By Prof. Jea-gun Park, Department of Electronic Engineering, Hanyang University

The Explosive Third Wave of Semiconductor Growth

The first wave of semiconductors arrived in the early 1980s with the advent of the PC era. During this time, the need for CPUs for computing and DRAM memory for data storage grew as PCs became commercialized. In 1983, Korea developed the country’s first 64K DRAM, and by the early 1990s, it became the global leader in the memory semiconductor market with the 4M DRAM. Through the 2nd and 3rd DRAM wars with Japanese, Taiwanese, and German companies during the IMF crisis and the Lehman Brothers collapse, Korea dominated the global DRAM market. However, as the global PC market became saturated, global DRAM growth slowed down. With the launch of Apple’s iPhone in 2007, the second wave of semiconductor growth began. The spread of smartphones led to the need for additional semiconductors such as Application Processors (AP), DRAM, and NAND flash memory. Furthermore, the advent of the smartphone era stimulated the wireless internet market, significantly increasing the demand for semiconductors in data centers. The second wave of semiconductor growth subsided as the smartphone market growth slowed due to global inflation, and the RussiaUkraine and IsraelHamas wars during the COVID-19 era. Following the rise of LLMs, the generative AI industry has grown rapidly, increasing the need for AI accelerators for learning and inference tasks and data centers for data clouding. As a result, the global semiconductor market has entered the third wave of growth.
According to global market research firm Gartner, the DRAM and NAND flash memory markets are projected to reach $92 billion and $82 billion by 2028, respectively. The AI semiconductor market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.3% from 2023 to 2028, with the market size reaching about $160 billion by 2028. Currently, the AI semiconductor market is about 47% the size of the memory market, but it is expected to grow to the size of the memory market by 2028. In particular, AI semiconductors require AI accelerators and data centers. AI accelerators are implemented through highperformance GPUs and 8-12 highbandwidth memories (HBM)1. Generative AI uses more than 1,000 AI accelerators, and AI data centers require massive amounts of CPU and memory capacity. Generative AI is expected to develop explosively, further increasing the third wave of semiconductor growth. In addition to AI, explosive growth is expected in the electric vehicle and autonomous vehicle sectors. By 2030, electric vehicles are expected to use about 1,000 semiconductors to achieve carbon neutrality, while autonomous vehicles will require about 3,000 semiconductors. This suggests that, in addition to AI, autonomous vehicles, and electric vehicles, sectors such as robotics, drones, IoT, and virtual reality will experience explosive growth, marking the beginning of the third wave of semiconductor growth.

“To lead the third wave of semiconductor growth,
governments around the world are launching
semiconductor growth projects.
For Korea to secure competitiveness
in the global semiconductor industry, the government
must provide absolute support through policy initiatives.”

Global Semiconductor Competition to Ride the Third Wave of Growth

To lead the third wave of semiconductor growth, such as in AI, governments around the world are launching semiconductor growth projects. The United States has enacted the CHIPS Act to increase the production capacity of leadingedge foundries, which are essential for the AI and IT industries, and aims to account for 24% of global foundry production by 2032. It has invested $52.7 billion in this initiative, with subsidies of $8.5 billion for Intel, $6.6 billion for Taiwan’s TSMC, and $6.4 billion for Samsung Electronics in South Korea to establish leadingedge foundry processes. Europe has also created the EU Semiconductor Support Act, which will invest about KRW 60 trillion over the next 10 years, attracting leadingedge foundry factories from companies such as Intel and GlobalFoundries, and providing subsidies of 30-40% of investment costs with the goal of raising Europe’s global semiconductor production share to 20% by 2030. Japan has declared the revival of its semiconductor industry and has provided KRW 10.7 trillion in subsidies to attract TSMC’s 1st and 2nd foundry factories. Additionally, Japan has established Rapidus as the first step to entering the leadingedge foundry industry, investing about KRW 50 trillion, and has invested approximately KRW 3.3 trillion in LSTC to apply Rapidus’ technology. Taiwan has recently enacted the Semiconductor Act, pledging to invest about KRW 12.3 trillion over the next 10 years to strengthen the competitiveness of leadingedge foundries such as TSMC. China is also pursuing advanced memory semiconductors and leadingedge foundry businesses, investing about KRW 180 trillion with government support. As such, countries like the United States, Taiwan, Europe, Japan, and China are engaged in fierce competition to lead the third wave of semiconductor growth. Korea also urgently needs government support equivalent to that of other nations to ride this wave. Moreover, to secure competitiveness in the global semiconductor industry, the government must provide absolute support through policy initiatives.

K-Semiconductor Special Act: Swift Implementation is Key

Unlike other countries, it is very difficult to build the infrastructure needed to establish semiconductor factories in South Korea. In the case of the Yongin cluster, the first factory is expected to begin operations by the end of 2027, after eight years of construction. In contrast, Taiwan, our competitor, has already established semiconductor industrial parks in advance with government support, and new factory construction takes only two years. For South Korea to remain competitive, it needs rapid infrastructure development, including electricity, water supply, wastewater treatment, roads, and renewable energy, along with swift approval processes and regulatory support for new factory construction. The semiconductor industry is driven by timing and cost competition. To capture the third wave of semiconductor growth, the United States is providing broad subsidies to enhance cost competitiveness. These subsidies cover not only semiconductor foundries and memory factories but also facilities for the production of semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment (MPE). South Korea also needs legislation to support subsidies for the construction of new production facilities and R&D investments in advanced memory semiconductors, vehicle semiconductors, nextgeneration power electronics semiconductors, and semiconductor MPE. Considering the rapid technological changes in semiconductor industries, the tax code must be promptly amended to extend tax credits for R&D and production facilities for large, medium, and small enterprises. That is, global semiconductor competitiveness can be secured only if supported by the swift implementation of the K-Semiconductor Act.

2028 Market Size Forecast

DRAM Memory

$92 billion

NAND Flash Memory

$82 billion

AI Semiconductor

$160 billion

Only One Winner in the Advanced Foundry Business

In the fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and the fourth industrial revolution, the advanced foundry business for products such as GPUs and APs is essential. Currently, fabless semiconductor design companies are led by the United States, while Taiwan and South Korea dominate the advanced foundry sector, with Intel recently entering the field. However, the advanced foundry market is highly competitive, and only the leader can generate profits. The third wave of semiconductor growth is driven by fabless companies in AI, advanced foundries, HBM, PIM2, CXL3, and eSSD4. South Korea must emulate Taiwan’s TSMC and strengthen its advanced foundry sector. Similar to the United States, South Korea needs subsidies for advanced foundry R&D and investments in domestic advanced fabs. As a leading memory manufacturing country, South Korea is continually scaling down its processes by 1nm per year and investing in new semiconductor equipment, which results in idle equipment that can be utilized in expanding the foundry business. The growing markets for electric vehicles (which use approximately 1,000 semiconductors) and autonomous vehicles (which use about 2,000–3,000 semiconductors), as well as nextgeneration power electronics semiconductors based on SiC5and GaN6, offer great opportunities for expansion in the foundry business. To strengthen global competitiveness in the foundry business, subsidies should be paid when entering the market, as is done by foreign governments.

“The localization rate of semiconductor materials
and equipment used by South Korean semiconductor
manufacturers is below 30% and 10%, respectively.
To improve the global competitiveness of domestic
MPE companies, continuous efforts from both the
government and private sector are required.”

Pangyo Techno Valley: A cuttingedge R&D hub at the center of IT, BT, and CT in the age of the 4th industrial revolution. Located in Seongnam, Gyeong-gi-do, Pangyo Techno Valley is one of South Korea’s leading hubs for the IT industry. Home to numerous IT companies and startups, the area boasts excellent infrastructure and a concentration of top talent, fostering the development of innovative technologies and services. It has achieved significant success in fields such as gaming, software development, artificial intelligence (AI), and data analytics.

Private and Government Efforts Essential to Strengthen the Semiconductor MPE Ecosystem

The localization rate of semiconductor materials and equipment used by South Korean semiconductor manufacturers is below 30% and 10%, respectively. This means that semiconductor manufacturers are heavily reliant on unstable supply chains for MPE. Localization of these MPE is critical for improving cost competitiveness. Compared to US and Japanese MPE companies, South Korean companies lag behind in terms of revenue and profit. To improve the global competitiveness of domestic MPE companies, continuous efforts from both the government and private sector are required. The government should significantly increase R&D support for future semiconductor MPE technologies, while demand companies, such as semiconductor manufacturers, must open up and support the development of domestic semiconductor MPE companies. Specifically, a 12-inch waferbased semiconductor MPE test bed that provides infrastructure for technology development and evaluation should be established as soon as possible.

The AI Industry Will Lead the Growth of the Second Pangyo

The emergence of generative AI is causing explosive growth in both AI software and hardware industries. South Korea has global competitiveness in both areas. A global environment is being created for South Korea’s talented workforce to establish and grow AI related ventures. With the explosive growth of venture companies in areas like sLLM7and ondevice AI, a huge market is opening up for South Korean AI software and hardware experts. However, ventures must overcome the “Death Valley” of business, and government support, such as national AI data centers, AI technology development and commercialization projects, and the expansion of earlystage venture investment funds, is essential to ensure success.

Establishment of a Semiconductor Research Institute is Not an Option, But a Must

Semiconductors account for more than 20% of South Korea’s total exports and over 10% of the country’s GDP. The semiconductor industry is highly competitive globally, with significant trade and societal issues. Therefore, it is necessary to have a governmentfunded research institute dedicated to studying future growth technologies, policies, trade issues, and societal concerns in the semiconductor industry. Currently, only two semiconductor specialists are working at KIET. To enhance South Korea’s global semiconductor competitiveness, a dedicated semiconductor research institute is absolutely necessary.

Long-Term Strategy Needed for Semiconductor Workforce Development

The global competition for semiconductor talent is intensifying, and various countries have introduced support policies. The United States is investing $10.5 billion from 2022 to 2026 to train semiconductor specialists through its Commerce R&D program. Taiwan is establishing research and development centers to train 10,000 new talents annually, investing KRW 66.5 billion to develop 400 doctorallevel specialists. China is establishing semiconductorrelated departments at universities to train 200,000 specialists annually by 2025. South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have agreements with 11 universities, including KAIST, to train 510 semiconductor specialists each year, but there is still a shortage. Currently, around 3,600 graduates in semiconductorrelated fields are produced annually, but companies are struggling with a shortage of skilled workers. Samsung Electronics is hiring approximately 3,000, SK Hynix 1,700, and other semiconductor companies more than 7,000. Due to extremely low birth rates, the number of high school graduates is declining, and the preference for science and engineering as well as medical schools is making it harder to train the necessary workforce. Taiwan, in contrast, supplies a relatively large number of workers, and top talents prefer engineering schools and hope to join TSMC. To overcome this imbalance, longterm workforce development policies from the government and universities are essential. The Ministry of Education should support semiconductorspecialized universities, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy should run semiconductorspecialized graduate schools, and the Ministry of Science and ICT should continue to expand AI specialized graduate schools. Additionally, since domestic universities cannot meet the demand, policies should be implemented to grant permanent residency to foreign graduate students who join South Korean semiconductor companies.